Asset Managers Went Short. History Went Long.

A down week driven by closure of four positions (GC, PL, SI, ZN) on state-change signals; three new positions opened. MTD and YTD remain positive.

Asset Managers in YM flipped net short last week — a positioning flip that has appeared only 22 times in the COT history of this contract. The prior 21 instances with usable forward data produced a median 12-week return of +7.22% with an 80% win rate, and a 26-week median of +7.01% at 80% win. That cohort includes some notable entries: March 2020, October 2022, October 2023, August 2024, April 2025. Each time asset managers capitulated to the short side near a durable low, the market recovered sharply over the following quarter.

Spec positioning (Managed Money + Asset Managers combined) sits at the 5.0th all-time percentile — net −12,635 contracts, a 3-year z-score of −0.93. The 26-week index is mid-range at 46.8, meaning the extreme is relative, not absolute. The other side is more interesting: commercials reached +10,689 net with a 26-week index at 100.0 — the most bullish reading in the 6-month window — and added +4,966 contracts week-on-week. When specs are near historic short extremes and commercials are at the top of their 6-month range simultaneously, the COT structure is textbook contrarian setup.

Price tells a simpler story. YM closed at $49,686 on Friday, down −1.0% on the week, up +2.2% YTD. The MA stack is partially aligned: close above MA20 ($49,594) above MA50 ($48,178) above MA200 ($47,603), but MA50 sits below MA100 ($48,731) — one gap in an otherwise bullish configuration. Stack score 0.667. The 52-week range is $41,674–$50,273; Friday's close sits near the top of that range. Friday's close lands exactly in the middle of the largest activity cluster on the 3-month COT Delta Profile — the 49,000–50,000 zone where asset managers are net short and specs and dealers are net long. That concentration of business makes this level a significant magnet: price will be drawn back to it from either direction until the cluster is meaningfully redistributed.

The Asset Manager Positioning Flip analog is the standout signal this week. The 22-match cohort (21 with usable forward data) shows a consistent positive skew across every horizon: 1w +1.03% median / 71% win, 4w +2.96% / 76%, 8w +5.75% / 71%, 12w +7.22% / 80%, 26w +7.01% / 80%. The IQR narrows as the horizon extends, which is unusual — typically forward distributions widen at longer horizons. The 12w and 26w periods both show 80% win rates with Q1 returns above +5%. This is the cleanest analog read in the book this week.

ISO week 20 seasonals are mixed near-term but converge strongly at longer horizons. The 1-week window is flat across lookbacks: 40% win (5yr), 60% (10yr), 53% (15yr), 45% (20yr). At 4 weeks the 5-year sample is a headwind (20% win, −1.69% mean) but 10/15/20-year lookbacks are mildly positive. Beyond that, ISO 20 has a strong historical tailwind: 8-week win rates are 100% (5yr, n=5), 100% (10yr, n=10), 87% (15yr), 70% (20yr). At 12 weeks: 80%/90%/80%/70% across all four lookbacks. Seasonal and analog align directionally from the 8-week horizon onward.

What to watch: the asset manager net position on next Friday's COT release — if it deepens short further, the cohort grows and concentrates around the most extreme historical episodes. The 49,000–50,000 Delta Profile cluster is the key price reference: as long as the market holds above it, the positioning magnet acts as support; a break below it shifts the balance of the cluster overhead.

→ Full YM tearsheet — week of 2026-05-15

Metals: HG is the standout — spec longs at the 93.9th all-time percentile while commercial shorts hit the 0.1th percentile. GC and SI are mid-range around the 38–41st percentile, not at extremes.

Equity indices: Spec positioning in NQ reached the 7.6th all-time percentile (z1y −1.81), with ES at 15.7th. YM at the 5th. Spec shorts in the major equity indices extended across the board.

Energy: CL seasonal win rate for ISO Week 20 is 89% across a 9-year sample — the strongest seasonal reading in the book this week. HO specs (Managed Money): z1y −2.16, 13.4th all-time percentile, roc1w −12,413 contracts.

Grains: ZL specs hit the 99.7th all-time percentile (z1y +1.96), ZS at 97.1th (z1y +1.35), ZC at 90.0th (z1y +2.17). The grain complex carries the most extreme aggregate spec positioning in the book.

Softs: Cotton (CT) specs at z1y +3.25 — the most extreme 1-year reading in the 31-market universe this week.

FX: Swiss franc (6S) specs at z1y −2.55. New Zealand dollar (6N) at the 1.6th all-time percentile.

Rates: ZF 5-year T-Note specs at z1y +2.49 with a +117,286 contract roc1w — largest single-week add in rates.

State transitions this week: RTY · PL · ZL · ZN · 6J

All 31 tearsheets — week of 2026-05-15:

Three metals and one rates position closed on state-change signals. ZN was the only winner of the four.