Featured this week: Corn (ZC)
Corn specs added 79,822 contracts in a single week — the largest single-week inflow across all 31 markets we track. The 26-week positioning index hit 100.0.
The spec net now stands at +343,925 contracts, a 3-year z-score of +2.37σ (93.4th percentile all-time).
Within the 26-week window, this is the peak reading — idx26w 100.0 means current positioning is higher than any point in the past 6 months.
The commercial mirror is at the opposite extreme: producers and merchants sit at the 4.8th percentile all-time (z3y -2.67σ). In the same week that specs added +79,822 contracts, producers reduced their net position by -108,804.
ZC weekly close + spec, producer, and swap dealer net positioning, last 2 years.
COT volume profile: where positioning shifted in the last 6 months.
Two analog triggers are active.
The more precise signal is the producer percentile extreme: commercial producers at the 4.8th percentile, a level reached in just 7 prior instances since 2010.
From those 7 matches (n=6 completed observations), corn returned a median of +4.70% at 4 weeks (win rate 83%) and +21.53% at 12 weeks (win rate 83%).
The second trigger — swap dealers adding at a +2.48σ rate of change — has 21 historical instances but the signal fades: WR 65% at 4 weeks, 50% at 12 weeks.
7 historical matches on the producer percentile trigger. Median forward path + IQR band, weeks 1-26.
The producer percentile trigger stays active as long as the commercial net remains below the 5th percentile all-time.
At the current pace of producer reduction (-108k contracts this week alone), that threshold could tighten quickly.
What's moving across the 31-market book
Equity indices. Leveraged money net short across all four indices: YM at the 3.8th percentile all-time, NQ at 20.3rd, ES at 20.4th. ES asset managers are at the 96.4th percentile — institutional allocation to S&P near historical highs while leveraged specs press the short side. RTY asset managers flipped net short this week (-14,969 contracts, z3y -1.50σ); analog triggers active.
Metals. Gold spec longs unwound to a 26-week index of 8.6 while price holds near $4,733. Copper (HG) ran the other way: specs at the 91.7th percentile, producers at the 1.3rd. Two different positioning cycles inside one category.
Energy. WTI crude fell 6.4% — the largest single-week price decline across the 31 markets. Spec longs held: CL 26-week index at 90.5. Commercial producers hit the 100th percentile all-time, the highest net position in the dataset. Heating oil specs moved in the opposite direction, 26-week index at 6.0 (z1y -1.87σ).
Grains. Beyond ZC: soybeans (ZS) at the 97.6th percentile (z3y +2.09σ), three analog triggers active including a producer percentile extreme (n=13, 4w median +6.28%, WR 75%). Soybean oil (ZL) spec net hit the 100th percentile all-time — the highest reading in the full dataset. Producer opposition in ZL: 0.6th percentile.
Currencies. AUD leveraged specs at +2.57σ (88.6th pctl) and asset managers at +2.55σ (99.7th pctl) simultaneously. NZD is the mirror: specs at -2.10σ (1.6th pctl), asset managers at -1.28σ (1.6th pctl). GBP shows the sharpest intra-category divergence: specs at 72.5th pctl, asset managers at 1.3rd.
Rates. ZN specs added +124,093 contracts in one week, pushing the 26-week index to 96.5. All-time percentile remains at 5.1 — recent flow is large, absolute positioning still historically short. ZN analog active (leveraged money RoC, n=26, 4w WR 64%).
Softs. Cocoa gained 17.9% this week, the largest single-week price move across all 31 markets. Spec positioning sat at the 8.9th percentile going into the move. Cotton (CT) 1-year z-score at +3.41σ with analog triggers active on the swap dealer side.
All tearsheets — week of 2026-05-08: