Positioning reached a defined extreme 12 times across 31 futures markets in this week's Commitments of Traders report, covering 6 October 2026. 17 markets are holding speculative positioning within 20 percentage points of an all-time extreme.
Canadian Dollar speculative positioning sits at the 3rd percentile of its all-time range.
Soybean Meal speculative positioning sits above the 99th percentile of its all-time range.
5-Year T-Note saw the week's largest positioning change, speculators having cut 148,884 contracts.
Where positioning reached an extreme this week
A trigger is when a trader cohort's net position reaches a defined threshold. The count is how many times that has happened in that market since 2010.
Week 41 - COT historical analog extreme positioning triggers
Where positioning is most stretched
Low end of the historical range: Canadian Dollar (at the 3rd percentile), 10-Year T-Note (at the 3rd percentile), Russell 2000 (at the 6th percentile), Natural Gas (at the 9th percentile), 5-Year T-Note (at the 11th percentile). High end of the historical range: Soybean Meal (above the 99th percentile), Soybeans (above the 99th percentile), Sugar (at the 97th percentile), RBOB Gasoline (at the 97th percentile), Soybean Oil (at the 95th percentile).
A percentile carries no direction on its own. It states where the current net position sits within everything that cohort has held in that market since the data begins, and nothing more.
What happened the last time positioning looked like this
That is the question this week's analogs letter answers. For every trigger above it lists every previous instance since 2010, with the forward return at 1, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 26 weeks, the deepest fall and the highest rise along the way, and the calendar seasonal for the same week — so the median sits beside the dispersion it came from rather than standing in for it.
Returns are computed on a back-adjusted continuous price series built from a committed roll ledger, so a contract change is never counted as a price move. No price levels are shown, because an adjusted level is not a quote.
This week's letters
Attached: seven asset-class letters — equities, energy, metals, grains, softs, FX and treasuries — plus the analogs letter. Positioning by cohort, seasonality on back-adjusted prices, and the historical analog tables. Free with a subscription.