Positioning reached a defined extreme 7 times across 31 futures markets in this week's Commitments of Traders report, covering 13 October 2026. 17 markets are holding speculative positioning within 20 percentage points of an all-time extreme.
Canadian Dollar speculative positioning sits at the 1st percentile of its all-time range.
Soybean Meal speculative positioning sits above the 99th percentile of its all-time range.
10-Year T-Note saw the week's largest positioning change, speculators having cut 93,888 contracts.
Where positioning reached an extreme this week
A trigger is when a trader cohort's net position reaches a defined threshold. The count is how many times that has happened in that market since 2010.
Week 42 - COT positioning extremes historical analogs
Where positioning is most stretched
Low end of the historical range: Canadian Dollar (at the 1st percentile), 10-Year T-Note (at the 2nd percentile), New Zealand Dollar (at the 10th percentile), Swiss Franc (at the 10th percentile), 5-Year T-Note (at the 11th percentile). High end of the historical range: Soybean Meal (above the 99th percentile), Soybeans (at the 98th percentile), Sugar (at the 98th percentile), RBOB Gasoline (at the 97th percentile), Soybean Oil (at the 92nd percentile).
What happened the last time positioning looked like this
That is the question this week's analogs letter answers. For every trigger above it lists every previous instance since 2010, with the forward return at 1, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 26 weeks, the deepest fall and the highest rise along the way, and the calendar seasonal for the same week.
Returns are computed on a back-adjusted continuous price series built from a committed roll ledger.
This week's letters
Attached: seven asset-class letters - equities, energy, metals, grains, softs, FX and treasuries — plus the analogs letter. Positioning by cohort, seasonality on back-adjusted prices, and the historical analog tables. Free with a subscription.