Closed-trades equity, January 2022 – May 2026. Y-axis: cumulative return from $1M baseline. Gold dashed line marks the January 2022 HMM training cutoff; all returns shown are out-of-sample.
M&M hypothetical performance.
Featured this week: E-mini Dow (YM)
Asset Managers flipped net long on the E-mini Dow this week, the first long flip in 11 weeks. Net Asset Manager positioning went from below zero a week ago to +712 contracts at the 2026-05-26 close, a 1-week change of +7,901 contracts. That is a +2.7σ move on the rate-of-change distribution. Two independent triggers fired on the same cohort: the positioning flip and the rate-of-change extreme. Same cohort, two ways of saying the same thing.
The Asset Manager build sits inside a TFF book where Leveraged Money (specs) remains net short at the 4.5 all-time percentile of net position, the bottom of the historical range. Dealers absorbed last week's run-up on the short side, then cut −7,603 contracts this week. Real money is buying; specs have not yet covered. The structural setup is asymmetric.
YM price 3cohort net positioning E-mini Dow (YM) weekly close with MA20/50/100/200 and Leveraged Money / Dealer / Asset Manager net contracts, 3-year window.
Price closed at 51,132 on Friday, +0.93% on the week, +5.18% YTD, at a new 52-week high. The MA stack is fully aligned long (score 0.67, all four signals positive). 20–50 spread is +2.49%, 50–200 spread is +1.68%. Trend backs the positioning flip.
The analog trigger fired on the Asset Manager flip. 20 prior matches since 2007: 2007-09-11, 2008-01-29, 2008-08-19, 2009-01-27, 2009-07-14, 2010-12-07, 2011-11-08, 2012-06-12, 2014-08-26, 2016-01-26, 2020-03-31, 2020-06-09, 2022-08-30, 2022-11-01, 2023-10-10, 2024-08-20, 2025-01-07, 2025-03-25, 2026-03-10.
Forward distribution from these matches: 1w +0.16% median (53% win, n=19), 4w +0.82% (53%), 8w +2.24% (68%), 12w +3.72% (72%), 26w +6.34% (83%, n=18). The IQR floor turns positive by week 12 and stays positive at week 26 (Q25 +3.49%, Q75 +11.53%). Short window is mixed; the medium and long horizons are where the cohort earns its keep.
20 historical matches on the Asset Manager flip-to-long trigger. Median forward path with IQR band. Both the median and the Q25 line turn positive by week 12.
A second cohort confirmed the read. The same Asset Manager 1-week change extreme (+2.7σ, n=32) shows 26w median +4.5%, WR 70%. Two independent triggers, both pointing in the same direction, both rooted in the same buyer cohort.
Dow-Jones showing strong momentum.
What to watch: the next Asset Manager print. A second consecutive build anchors the cohort; a give-back weakens it. On price, the MA stack stays clean as long as the 20-day holds above the 50-day. Below that, the trend signal cracks.
What's moving across the 31-market book
Rates positioning heatmap - Week 22-2016
Rates: The treasuries complex is rotating into a single positioning story. ZB Dealers at the 3.7 all-time percentile of net position (extreme short) — n=14 prior matches points to 12-week median −2.0% (price), WR 31%. ZF Asset Managers cut −3.1σ on 1-week change, n=34 prior matches; ZF Leveraged Money added +3.3σ (n=30, 12w median −0.07%). ZN Asset Managers cut −4.7σ on 1-week change (n=19, 12w median −0.23%). Three different cohorts, three different triggers, all of them historically associated with lower bond prices and higher yields.
Grains positioning heatmap - Week 22-2016
Grains: ZC Managed Money cut net positioning −2.5σ on 1-week change (n=28 prior matches). 1w forward median +1.67% (WR 70%) — short-window relief. Past 12w median −1.02%, 26w median −2.48% (WR 41%) — the longer horizon turns over. Seasonal calendar leans the other way: peak-supply window approaches across the grain complex, and the spec unwind is fading into it.
Metals positioning heatmap - Week 22-2016
Metals: Status unchanged at this read versus last week's GC commercial-percentile extreme.
Softs positioning heatmap - Week 22-2016
Softs: Largest shifts occuring in the sugar market where Managed Money added 8296 contracts net short and remain bearish at 14 historical percentile.
Equities positioning heatmap - Week 22-2016
Equities: YM Asset Manager flip is the headline (Featured above). RTY, ES, NQ: status unchanged from prior week;
Currencies positioning heatmap - Week 22-2016
Currencies: 6A Asset Manager 1-week change extreme of −3.75σ (n=40 prior matches). 6C carries two active triggers — Dealer add and Asset Manager cut on the same week. Both currencies sit in the same shape: real money cutting, dealers absorbing.
Energy positioning heatmap - Week 22-2016
Energy: HO Leveraged Money (specs) cut a hard −37,815 contracts WoW, dropping spec net to −134,104 — z3y −1.70σ, 1-year z-score −2.39σ, 10.9 all-time percentile. Spec capitulation print into a market already short. Swap dealers (the client-flow mirror) sit at the 91 all-time percentile net long, 26-week index 100 — clients added long exposure the entire 6 months. CL printed a −9.2% weekly close. HO and CL are tightly coupled (52-week rolling correlation 0.79; 20-day rolling 0.89), and HO did not decouple.
State transitions this week:
No changes in the portfolio.
All 31 tearsheets — week of 2026-05-29: