Speculators Capitulated. Swap Dealers Set A Record.
8 prior instances of speculator capitulation in cocoa, median +12.3% at 26 weeks, 87.5% win rate across the cohort. ISO Week 24 positioning across 31 markets.
Leveraged Money Hit Bottom on the Kiwi. Dealers Hit the Top.
20 prior matches of leveraged-money / dealer divergence on the New Zealand Dollar — median +1.13% at 4 weeks (68% WR, n=19), +4.09% at 26 weeks (71% WR, n=17). Specs sit at the 0.2 all-time percentile of net position. Week 23 positioning across 31 markets.
9 prior instances of Gold commercials reaching this all-time percentile band — median +14.2% at 26 weeks, 87.5% win rate across the cohort with complete forward data. Week 21 positioning across 31 markets.
22 prior instances of this positioning flip in Dow futures — median +7.2% at 12 weeks, 80% win rate across the cohort. ISO week 20 seasonal confirms from week 8 out: 100% win rate across the 5-, 10-, and 15-year windows. Week 20 positioning across 31 markets.
The sharpest commercial opposition in corn since 2010 — and a 7-instance historical analog with a +21.5% median return at 12 weeks. Week 19 positioning across 31 markets.
